Projects
Alleviating Compounding Flocking Fears: Avian influenza & Migratory Birds
New incursions of avian influenza are a critical threat to Australia’s poultry sector. The H5N1 strain is absent from Australia but is causing severe environmental and economic damage around the world.
A disease spread model, based on the AADIS framework (www.aadis.org), will be created to determine how an outbreak of H5N1 might spread within the Australian poultry industry. The model will also represent potential controls and interventions that may be used to limit the spread of avian influenza.
This will have multiple practical benefits for how we understand, mitigate and manage avian influenza risk in Australia. For example, the relative risk of outbreaks occurring can be assessed across time (by identifying different levels of risk across seasons), and across space (by identifying more and less vulnerable sections of the poultry industry). This can also estimate the effectiveness and relative costs of different response options, which allows for the value of those responses to be understood from an economic perspective.
This project builds on and complements existing research and modelling, including from DAFF, Wildlife Health Australia, and CEBRA. Through expert and stakeholder workshops, this project will also engage directly with industry and government decision makers. As a result, their perspectives and knowledge will be directly incorporated into the project. This direct engagement will also enhance the communication of project outputs to the groups that are most likely to be impacted by new outbreaks of avian influenza.
To date, this will be the most comprehensive assessment of the potential spread of avian influenza in the poultry industry and the relative effectiveness of control strategies and interventions. The modelling results will provide practical and actionable knowledge for industry and government stakeholders.
A disease spread model, based on the AADIS framework (www.aadis.org), will be created to determine how an outbreak of H5N1 might spread within the Australian poultry industry. The model will also represent potential controls and interventions that may be used to limit the spread of avian influenza.
This will have multiple practical benefits for how we understand, mitigate and manage avian influenza risk in Australia. For example, the relative risk of outbreaks occurring can be assessed across time (by identifying different levels of risk across seasons), and across space (by identifying more and less vulnerable sections of the poultry industry). This can also estimate the effectiveness and relative costs of different response options, which allows for the value of those responses to be understood from an economic perspective.
This project builds on and complements existing research and modelling, including from DAFF, Wildlife Health Australia, and CEBRA. Through expert and stakeholder workshops, this project will also engage directly with industry and government decision makers. As a result, their perspectives and knowledge will be directly incorporated into the project. This direct engagement will also enhance the communication of project outputs to the groups that are most likely to be impacted by new outbreaks of avian influenza.
To date, this will be the most comprehensive assessment of the potential spread of avian influenza in the poultry industry and the relative effectiveness of control strategies and interventions. The modelling results will provide practical and actionable knowledge for industry and government stakeholders.